Langley & Co Director Toby Langley has returned to The Cellar Door Podcast for a second conversation with host Tom Massey. This time the topic is the cycles that shape the wine business.

The pair use the Turrentine Wine Business Wheel of Fortune as a guide. It was developed by the California brokerage Turrentine in the 1990s. Using it, they explore why wine moves through booms and busts, and what the current downturn means for growers, producers and anyone weighing up the value of a wine business.

Key themes from the conversation

• Wine is slow to respond, in both directions. Vines take years to establish and can’t be pulled out one year and replanted the next. Toby estimates a typical wine cycle runs 5 to 15 years. By the time a shortage or surplus is obvious, the market has often already moved on.
• Inventory is the hidden driver. Wine sitting in tanks, warehouses and consumers’ pantries since COVID is weighing on demand for each new vintage. Until that overhang clears, the signal to growers stays “we don’t want your grapes”, even where the long-term case for a vineyard is sound.
• Vintage variation compounds the cycle. Cool-climate regions can swing dramatically from year to year. Tasmania’s crop rose by around 40% in 2025, then fell by roughly half in 2026. Managing that volatility takes contingency planning, flexible contracts and smart timing of releases.
• Not every part of the market is in trouble. The real pain is at the commercial, promotion-driven end of the market, which more than half of Australia’s industry was built to supply. Many premium and well-branded businesses with loyal customers are performing well. They’re just keeping their heads down.
• Value comes through the cycle, not from it. Buyers will look past earnings inflated by cheap surplus fruit. Strong brands, focused management and control of supply are what hold value in any part of the cycle. Rosemount and Yellow Tail are cited as examples.

Closing line:
As Toby puts it, it’s always darkest before the dawn. The pessimism that delays new investment today is the same force that sets up the next boom.

Links:
🎧 Listen to the episode on The Cellar Door Podcast
📄 Read the full transcript HERE